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The Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has reacted to the outcome of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primaries in the Ayawaso East Constituency, marking the first time an election result has gone against his firm’s projection.
Dankwah, whose polling organisation has accurately predicted the outcomes of most major elections in Ghana in recent years, had forecast victory for Hajia Amina Adam, the widow of the late Ayawaso East Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure.
However, the final results told a different story, as the recalled Ghana High Commissioner to Nigeria, Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed, emerged winner after the close of voting.
Speaking on Channel One TV on Saturday, February 7, 2026, shortly after the results were declared, Dankwah attributed the unexpected outcome to what he described as a high level of voter inducement during the primaries.
According to him, the situation undermined the credibility of the process and directly affected the accuracy of his polling data.
“During the voting, we all saw what was happening,” he said. “It is unfortunate that the NDC leadership acknowledged the issue from the beginning but failed to take responsibility.”
He criticised the governing party for what he described as tolerating practices that threaten Ghana’s democratic growth, warning that such actions could have long-term consequences.
“I thought this was supposed to be a reset,” Dankwah noted. “Instead, they have succeeded in replicating what the NPP did in the past. As a country seeking to deepen its democracy, this is worrying.”
Drawing attention to the nature of party primaries, Dankwah explained that elections involving relatively small electorates are particularly vulnerable to manipulation when money is heavily introduced into the process.
“When you are dealing with a small sample size, high poverty levels, unemployment, and significant sums of money, almost anything can happen,” he said.
He also addressed the gap between his firm’s prediction and the final outcome, describing it as marginal.
“The difference was about seven percent, just outside the margin of error in one of our models,” he explained. “But inducements can easily swing even that margin.”
Prior to the election, Global Info Analytics had projected Hajia Amina Adam to win with approximately 54 percentsupport, while Baba Jamal was expected to secure less than 38 percent.
The official results, however, showed that Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed polled 431 votes, narrowly defeating Hajia Amina Adam, who obtained 399 votes.
Meanwhile, Mohammed Ramne received 88 votes, Dr Yakubu Azimdow garnered 45 votes, and Najib Sani recorded one vote.
Watch the interview below:
